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The Write Way

9 September 2005

The Numbers Game

Greetings,

I've rabbited on about the problems we have out here with weather in the past (see here  and here and yes, here as well ) and my excuse is that this obsession comes from living in the driest continent on Mother Earth.

So it shouldn't surprise anyone that one of the features of our weather reports on the telly is a weekly look at the SOI. This is the Southern Oscillation Index and we all scrutinise the charts behind the glamorous presenter for signs that the SOI is above The Line because if it stays below (and is negative) that's a sign that the El Niņo effect could be returning ... and that means no rain.

Read more about the SOI at the Bureau of Meteorology site.   

Recently, the aforementioned glamorous weather presenter was wrapping up this segment and made the following statement, "So we have a 50% chance of rain."

Now, on the surface that sounds great ... "Wow!" I can hear you exclaim, "Fifty percent chance of rain! What's she complaining about?"

And yes, dear reader, that was my immediate response, too, until I started to think about it ... You see, "Fifty percent chance of rain" really boils down to, "it will or it won't." I could have told them that, and nobody pays me to have a flash hairdo every night.

People do funny things when faced with numbers ... here's an example:

If you were to take two groups of people and ask them a couple of similar questions, you would get hugely different answers based on the figures you feed them.

You ask the first group:
1) Is the population of the country Macau less than 2 million or more than 2 million?
2) What do you think the population of the country Macau is?

You ask the second group:
1) Is the population of the country Macau less than 100 million or more than 100 million?
2) What do you think the population of the country Macau is?

Now, although these are basically the same neutral questions, the results will be different, because people think that these two questions ("more than x million" and "what is the population") are related, although they aren't. So the first group will likely give you estimates of the population around 2 million, while the second group will give estimates around 100 million -- a tad different.

Clever ... There's an interesting discussion about the use and misuse of statistics at Wikipedia

 

Which leads us to this week's topic of how to write numbers.

An accepted rule is to write the word for numbers 1 - 10, but use numerals for numbers over 10 ... unless it's at the beginning of a sentence, in which case you write out the word.

e.g. I gave the five children their bus fare.

I drew the line at paying for all 33 members of the class.

Fifteen boys nearly missed the bus because they were skylarking.

When you have to write out long numbers, use a hyphen between words that end in -y and don't use commas between the individual words that make up a number unless it's a large number.

e.g. Three hundred and twenty-three marchers greeted us. Seventy-six trombones led the big parade.

One million, two hundred and thirty-three thousand, four hundred and ninety-eight people used the public trains that day. 

You'll notice I've included 'and' in these examples ... that's the way we do things here ... I know that our 'Murkin cousins omit the 'and.'

Read more than you ever wanted to know about writing numbers here 

And a story with a statistical flavour:

Two statisticians were travelling in an airplane from LA to New York. About an hour into the flight, the pilot announced that they had lost an engine, but don't worry, there are three left.

However, instead of 5 hours it would take 7 hours to get to New York. A little later, he announced that a second engine failed, and they still had two left, but it would take 10 hours to get to New York.

Somewhat later, the pilot again came on the intercom and announced that a third engine had died. Never fear, he announced, because the plane could fly on a single engine.

However, it would now take 18 hours to get to new York. At this point, one statistician turned to the other and said, "Gee, I hope we don't lose that last engine, or we'll be up here forever!"

This week's quiz:

See how well you listened in maths classes.

denominator, integers, numerator, rhombus, vertex, algebra, polynomial, matrix, parabola, logarithm

1. a mathematical expression that is the sum of a number of terms 

2. a parallelogram with four equal sides; an oblique-angled equilateral parallelogram 

3. the bottom part of a fraction 

4. the point of intersection of lines or the point opposite the base of a figure 

5. rectangular or square array of numbers 

6. all positive and negative whole numbers 

7. the exponent required to produce a given number 

8. the mathematics of working with variables 

9. the top part of a fraction 

10.a plane curve formed by the intersection of a right circular cone and a plane parallel to an element of the curve; a u-shaped curve with certain properties 

A new government 10 year survey costing $3,000,000,000 revealed that 3/4 of the people in the country make up 75% of the population.

Last week's quiz:

Since we spent a short moment with the Old French, it only seems fair that we also pay a visit to Old English. Match up these words derived from Middle and Old English (as opposed to Latin!) Most are easy and are just included so you can see how much we owe to the Anglo-Saxons.

untoward, whilom, uncouth, anent, unwieldy, gloaming, unkempt, disgruntle, naughty, wolf

1. crude; unrefined; awkward or clumsy; ungraceful - UNCOUTH (From OE un + cunnan - well-known)

2. difficult to carry or manage because of size, shape, weight, or complexity- UNWIELDY (From OE wield - to be strong)

3. regarding; concerning - ANENT (From OE onefn - near)

4. carnivorous mammals of the family Canidae - WOLF (From OE wulf - wolf)

5. having once been; former - WHILOM (From OE hwilum - time; while)

6. behaving disobediently or mischievously; indecent; improper - NAUGHTY (From OE nawiht - nothing)

7. twilight; dusk - GLOAMING (From OE glomung - alteration)

8. to make discontented - DISGRUNTLE (From ME gruntelen - to grunt)

9. not favorable; unpropitious; troublesome; adverse; hard to guide or control; unruly; improper; unseemly - UNTOWARD (From OE un + toward - promising; making good progress)

10.not properly maintained; disorderly or untidy; uncombed - UNKEMPT (From OE un + cemban - comb)

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Dr Morgenes is currently in conversation with an owl ... No, I'm not going to tell you why. You'll just have to pop over to the Never-Ending Story: http://write101.blogspot.com Just click on the Never-Ending Story and use the Comments button at the end of the entry to add your contribution. If you have friends who fancy themselves as writers, invite them to contribute (just forward this newsletter in its entirety to them).

Have you made your Mark on the World yet? No? Then stop by our Map of the World and read the messages. (Just click List) and add your mark: http://pub37.bravenet.com/guestmap/view.php?usernum=3170114826  

A Little Something Extra

If you're struggling with a mathematical problem, here's a great site that has an excellent knowledge bank of problems - all worked out for you by experts! Choose from number, trig, calculus, algebra and many others: http://www.maths-help.co.uk/Knowldge/Index.htm 

And mathworld boasts it's the web's most extensive mathematics resource: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ 

For those who, like me, love to know the when, where and who ... here's a maths history site put together by the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of St Andrews in Scotland. It's called the MacTutor History of Mathematics: http://www-history.mcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/history/index.html

And for students, there's a collection of helpful sites here: http://www.write101.com/maths.htm 

Word of the week: Calculus (n) the branch of mathematics that is concerned with limits and with the differentiation and integration of functions OR a hard lump produced by the concretion of mineral salts; found in hollow organs or ducts of the body OR an incrustation that forms on the teeth and gums

This interesting word comes from the Latin calculus (reckoning, account) and originally referred to the pebbles the Romans used in counting. These were apparently little limestone pebbles. 

So you can see how it's only a hop, skip and a stagger from counting with limestone pebbles, to painful mathematical calculations to very painful stones in difficult to get at parts of the human anatomy.

If you're considering a career in calculus, it might pay to be very particular about your understanding of the word or you might find yourself peering into icky bits instead of poring over sums.

Oxymoron of the week: easy calculus

And a Latin phrase for those of you struggling with maths this weekend

Quae nocent, saepe docent (What hurts, often instructs)

[KWY NOH-kent SY-pay DOH-kent]

Kind regards,

Jennifer

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Copyright 2005 Jennifer Stewart

Individual articles copyrighted by their authors.

 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 



 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 

 

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